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Safe Haven: Preservation of Capital
Updated: 33 weeks 3 days ago

Technical Market Report

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
The secondaries have been underperforming and the breadth indicators have been weak. Seasonally next week has been one of extremes. I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday January 4 than they were on Friday December 28.

Gold Could See $1,000 in 2008

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
Gold finished the Minor degree wave 3 of Intermediate degree 1 up on May 12th at $730.40, and has decisively surpassed that level, a Bullish breakout. It came close to hitting a new all-time high, above $850.00.

Current Conditions from both a Dow Theory and a Cyclical Perspective

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
The fact that this 4-year cycle has stretched to this extent has caused many to dismiss the significance of the 4-year cycle. Likewise, the rally that has occurred since the November 21st Primary Trend change has caused many to dismiss the Dow theory.

Market Update: Work Ethic of an Unbiased Trader

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
As the calendar rolls over it's easy to get caught up in predictions for next year and other macro trends, but isn't this just being lazy? If we learned anything from 2007 it was that you can't just buy and hold in a volatile market that spends ...

My Ten Predictions for 2008

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
At the beginning of every year, Byron Wien, a former long time Chief Strategist for Morgan Stanley and now for Pequot, a hedge fund, makes his 10 predictions for that year. His records have been up and down, probably around 5-6 correct picks ...

Precious Points: Super Breakout!

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
The post-holiday trading week finally confirmed the long-watched fourth wave triangle in gold with an impulsive post-holiday move to last week's preliminary target, leaving last week's caution over a potential head fake timely and appropriate ...

Gazing into the Crystal Ball for Investing in 2008

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
A 'YEAR of fear' for portfolio investors - or a time of great opportunity? This is the question The Business Times put to a panel of financial experts as 2007 draws to a close. Their answers contained some surprises. Cash may be king ...

Base Metals Stockpiles and Prices 3

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
From their lows in the early 2000s, base metals prices have soared to achieve highs in the last couple years that many would have thought unheard of.

Expect Increasing Market Volatility in the Coming Days ...

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
A big market decision is approaching: Expect increasing market Volatility in the coming days ... and then a powerful move afterwards. The reason: Everyday, we track the Long Term Inflowing Liquidity going into the markets. This is a liquidity driven ...

Crunch Time for American Consumers

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
The subprime mortgage crisis is merely the tip of a very large iceberg. Beneath the surface lies not only a sea of tenuous loans to prime borrowers, but also an assortment of other liabilities backed by auto loans and credit card debit.

Optimism in the Face of Inflation

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
"...everyone is in apparent agreement that...like heroic armored knights on horseback saving damsels in distress by slaying dragons, the central banks must arrange irresponsible, insane infusions of infinite credit and money!"

It's all About the Dollar (again)

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
Call it the liquidity trade, call it the end of the Dollar, call it what you like but the long held truth of inter-market analysis has been superseded by one factor and one factor alone - what's the Dollar doing?

Again, I say, Credibility is the key, Mr. Hovnanian

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
Don't think that this is just my quarterly carping and caviling of the CEO of a succcessful 3rd generation family business that has fallen on the ropes. I have a lot of respect for hard won, multi-generational wealth. I really mean that, lot of respect...

Ushering In a New Economic Era

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
Though very few people actually realize it yet, 2008 will almost certainly be marked by major change, as the new economic paradigm shift transforms our landscape and entire way of life.

The Need For Speed - Part Deux

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
The credit crunch continues to worsen, where very soon attempting to paper over all problems with more derivatives and bailouts will no longer work, and authorities will be compelled to increase currency (just another derivative) debasement rates to ...

Signs of the Times

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
Perhaps our key call of the year was made in July when the impressive changes prompted the conclusion that the credit markets were in the biggest train wreck in history. A series of announcements by policymakers right up to this week's ...

Agri-Food Thoughts

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
With the demise of 2007, investors are looking to a new year and new opportunities. Some investors continue to hope collapse of housing and financial sectors will suddenly be reversed. Market strategists have called how many bottoms in housing sector?

Weekly Wrap-up: A Check-List For Early 08

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
A couple of things seem pretty clear to me: first, that I haven't lived long enough to have enough experience to know whether the bulls or bears are right about just how far the ripples will spread from the credit market problem ...

Recession and the Consumption Fallacy

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
As is usual at this time of the year our economic pundits are keeping a sharp eye on consumption. Any apparent decline in spending is gleefully pounced on as evidence that the Bush economy is going south. But as I have been pointing out ...

Rising Production Costs Put Floor in Gold at $600

Sun, 12/30/2007 - 01:14
We have seen gold brush off a 35-40% correction in oil and copper prices during 2006, and a small bear market rally in the US dollar during 2005. It even brushed off a so-called tightening campaign by the Fed between 2004 and 2006, not to mention ...